US has 40% chance of hitting a recession: JP Morgan chief economist

Bruce Kasman, the chief economist at JP Morgan & Chase, has projected a 40% chance of a recession hitting the US. Kasman was speaking to reporters in Singapore when he expressed apprehensions about the condition of the US economy.

Kasman’s latest projections are a leg up from the projections he made at the start of the year, when he pegged the chances of a recession in the US at 30%.

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He said the probability of a US recession could rise further and even exceed 50%. Kasman said this would happen if the reciprocal tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump came into effect in April. He said Trump’s disruptive, business-unfriendly policies could heighten the risk of a recession.

JP Morgan’s current projection for the US GDP’s growth in 2025 is pegged at 2%.

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The country’s stocks have, however, seen a massive selloff recently as investors globally become concerned that Trump’s policies could slow down the economy’s growth.

The tech-heavy index Nasdaq has recorded an 8.6% dip so far this year from 19,130.79 to 17,648.45 as on March 12. S&P Global has recorded a 4.80% fall to 5,599.30 while Dow Jones Industrial Average has declined 2.80% to 41,350.93.

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Kasman also said that Trump’s approach to the global economic order could undermine investor faith in US assets if it was to challenge long-established trust in US markets and institutions.

He emphasized the importance of investors’ confidence in the rule of law, the integrity of information flow, and the government’s predictable involvement in the rules of the game in the U.S.

Economists at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have also downgraded US’ GDP growth forecast to 1.7% and 1.5% respectively this year.